초록
<P><B>Abstract</B></P> <P>This study combines a data envelopment analysis, a dynamic computable general equilibrium model with estimated secondary material flows for circular economy, based on economist Joseph Schumpeter's macroeconomic theory, to develop a novel soft-link model to determine the efficiency of forty-three dark-fermentative technology of biohydrogen, and technology improvement impacts on biohydrogen output and supply price for six major emerging Asian countries. The integrated model is found to be feasible.</P> <P>This study finds that efficiency of continuous technology significantly exceeds that of batch technology. Biomass substrate concentration is the most important input in the generation of biohydrogen statistically; pH influences the efficiency of the batch technology, and the efficiency of continuous production technologies significantly exceeds that of batch technologies, but still have a gap to improve to full production efficiency for most of continuous technologies. India and China generate highest output growth of biohydrogen in baseline scenario. Japan and India can most benefit from improvements in batch and continuous biohydrogen production technology. The models and results of this study provides guidelines and references for decision-makers in industry and government who are responsible for reforming future energy policy.</P> <P><B>Highlights</B></P> <P> <UL> <LI> A soft-link DEA-CGE model was developed, and its effectiveness confirmed. </LI> <LI> Efficiency and improvement potential of dark fermentation technologies are provided. </LI> <LI> Efficiency of continuous technology significantly exceeds that of batch technology. </LI> <LI> Biomass substrate concentration is the most important input in generation of bioH2. </LI> <LI> Japan and India are the countries that benefit most from improved bioH2 technology. </LI> </UL> </P>